cacahuate | Entries tagged with indecision 2008

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This morning Portlanders gathered at Portland State University as part of today's nationwide protest against California's Proposition 8.

These girls had my very favorite signs. In case you can't read them, the one on the left says, "PLEASE LIKE MY FAMILY," and the one on the right says, "I LIKE MY FAMILY." Amazing. If you ever wondered what message initiatives like Prop 8 send to children of gay parents, there it is, right there.

More after the cut.

( +65 )

There was jumping and screaming and a parade, and chants of "Barack! Hussein! Obama!" and a dance party with dancing on a giant see-saw made of couches. Tonight Reed was in love with America. At least, I was.

Goodnight, you guys.

( Click through. The rest are more exciting. (+33) )

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Can I be pedantic and mathy about the primary for a minute? Someone on my friends list just wrote the following, which seems to be a common line of thought:

[I]t is still entirely possible that she could win, and not just because the Superdelegates decide to overturn the "popular" vote. Right now, Obama has 1,487 pledged delegates and Clinton has 1,331. This is a difference of 156 delegates or 5% of those that have been assigned so far. There still 417 delegates from 7 states and 2 territories that have yet to be assigned.

This is technically true, but I think it overstates the chance of a Clinton win. We hear statements like it and think, "Wow! 417 delegates is way more than the difference between Obama and Clinton! She could still win!" But it's important to keep in mind that primary delegates are awarded proportionally, not by a winner-take-all system—and this means that only a relatively small fraction of the remaining 417 delegates are actually in play.

This is because, in relatively close state races like these, most of the delegates in a given state will actually be divided equally between the two candidates, having no effect on the total delegate margin. Since the most dramatic victories in this race so far have been won with a spread of about 30%, this means each candidate can expect to be awarded about 35% of the delegates in any state, at the least. What actually matters is the 30% in the middle that (being generous to Clinton) are more or less up for grabs.

So how many delegates are we really talking about? Well, taking into consideration the sometimes arcane and imperfect allocation processes, about 160. ( If you don't believe me, you can see how the numbers stack up state-by-state behind the cut. )

What this means, to put it simply, is that even if Clinton won every single remaining state by a margin of 30%, she would still just barely catch up to Obama in pledged delegates. And while it's technically possible that she could pull that off... Well, it's not going to happen.

I want to stress that this is not an anti-Clinton post. I'm not attacking Clinton or her campaign here. And I will say, because it's obligatory, that it's also possible (and significantly more likely) that Clinton could win by accumulating a critical mass of superdelegates.* But the idea that Clinton has any realistic chance of pulling ahead of Obama in pledged delegates should really be put to rest.

Edit: If I don't respond to comments promptly it's because my computer is in the shop, being given an optical drive that actually works (one hopes).

* This too is unlikely, since many superdelegates have said they would be loath to ordain the selection of a candidate if his or her opponent is the clear winner in pledged delegates (not to mention the popular vote and states won) and since superdelegates who have endorsed in the last month have come out overwhelmingly for Obama, who now has the support of only about 25 fewer superdelegates than Clinton.

Current Music: Ani DiFranco - "Both Hands"

Went to the Obama rally on Friday with Brian, Fani, Kris, and Avery. We got there at about 5 a.m., before the one big line was split into half a dozen smaller lines, and ended up at the very front of one of those lines. While in line, we were offered the chance to sit in Section 106, the "high-energy" section behind the stage that forms a backdrop of cheering supporters for the speakers. It sounded like fun, and they assured me I could still take pictures in this section, so we agreed.

Unfortunately this meant there were three gigantic lights pointed at us from the back of the stadium the whole time, including one directly behind the podium from where I sat, which was blinding and made exposure a bit tricky. So forgive the occasional wacky lens defects in these images.

( +31 )

So because we were in the backdrop section, I naturally had to scour the Internet for coverage in which we appeared! A few screencaps, because I'm a nerd:

Yup, me!
( +2 )

The victory party that Was Not To Be.

It was hard to get in. But I don't feel like telling that story now.

( +9 )

This is all I've got of Romney. I don't feel like re-editing it so the colors might look wonky. I really have no good excuse for not getting anything impressive at this event, except that there was a big light behind his head that made proper exposure nearly impossible, and... I didn't try very hard because he is just so profoundly boring I lost interest. How sad is that?

Also, is it just me or does anyone else think the logo on his campaign sign makes it look like he's running for postmaster general?

Current Music: John Lennon - "Nobody Told Me"

I only have one picture of McCain, because he spoke in the middle of a big crowd in front of the capitol building and wasn't elevated at all, so I was shooting between people's heads.

Seemingly everything Huckabee did in New Hampshire revolved around a) Chuck Norris and b) food. So here he are Huck and Chuck at a pancake house. Apparently around 400 people were lured to the event by the promise of free pancakes, eggs, bacon, and sausage—which I rather appreciated, but I was glad I wasn't vegan.

Chuck Norris is much shorter and wimpier in person, though I imagine he's the sort of person who, if you told him this, would kick you in the shins.

I'm missing a few photos from this event that my computer ate, mostly of the young blond Huckabee supporters and their cute blond children, motivated by my culture shock and the distressing realization that some of these kids were going to grow up to be big gay heathens. Maybe even the kid in the baby carrier with the homemade sign reading "HUCKABABEE!"

Luckily I was distracted from these and other horrors by the arrival of the news team from 236.com (link goes to a video covering all the Republican events we attended), the humor site of the Huffington Post, who stopped to ask my bearded father, "Mr. Norris, how did you get into the martial arts?"

( +3 )

This one does have a story though.

The Edwards event was right after the Clinton event but an hour away, and the Clinton rally carried over so long that by the time we got to Keene, they'd stopped letting people in. He was speaking on the second floor of some university building, and upon entering we (my dad, my aunt Dyan, and my uncle Richard) were told that absolutely no one would be allowed up the main staircase, by order of the fire marshal.

This just intrigued my father, a firm believer in sneaking. We made as if to sit with the others who had been shut out and listen to the speech over a loudspeaker, but lo and behold, around a corner was an unguarded elevator. Dad sort of leaned into the button all casual-like, and we shuffled into the elevator.

It wasn't guarded on the second floor either.* All four of us were able to walk easily through the press entrance at the back of the room. From there, I ended up in a small clutch of photographers at the end of an aisle. But as they left, I was able to slowly sneak up the aisle—until I was sitting cross-legged in front of the first row of seats, less than a yard from Edwards.

( +9 )

* That's how the security tends to be at these events, really, at least in New Hampshire—once the event has actually started, no one will really notice where you go. At a second Obama event, we got stuck in the overflow room again, but when I got up to go to the bathroom I got lost and ended up in the main room. (Cameraless, unfortunately.)

Current Music: Mountaineer - "Just a Breeze"

Right, it's been too long so I'm just going to skip the commentary and give you my New Hampshire photos already. Though if you have questions about my experience, go ahead and ask!

( +16 )

Dear everyone,

His name is Barack Obama. BARACK. B-A-R-A-C-K. Yes, that's a C in there!

If you have time to have an opinion about the election, or write an article about the election, or mention him for any reason, you have time to learn to spell his name. It is really not that hard.

B-A-R-A-C-K.

No love,
Molly

Hello from Bedford, New Hampshire!

You might be wondering about the Photo-a-Day project. I've taken a lot more photos than I've posted, and I'll be sorting the whole thing out later this week. I know you're on the edge of your seat. :p

So, on Saturday I went to an Obama rally at Nashua High School in Nashua, NH. My dad and I were almost an hour late, but through luck we got a good parking space and ended up in the overflow room, listening to Obama from a speaker. He has been drawing enormous crowds—far larger than any other candidates, Republican or Democrat, have been able to, from what I've seen—and it's not hard to see why. He's a powerful speaker, and this was obvious even without seeing him.

After his speech, Obama came into the overflow room to make a few remarks and shake hands.

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Incidentally, this is the same rally at which Bill O'Reilly showed up and shoved a staffer. I'm damn sad that I didn't get to see that, but alas, we neglected to hurry to the back of the building as Obama left. I know it's juvenile, but there are few things I'd enjoy more than the chance to hit O'Reilly with a snowball.

Anyway, we had lunch and headed off to an Edwards event in the college town of Keene, only to find that it was on Sunday and the Union Leader had gotten the date wrong (way to go, guys). So we settled into a coffee shop there, where we chatted with some Obama volunteers. (They're everywhere!)

Also in this coffee shop: an unscientific poll of customers, taken each day with pretty much the same results. Take it for what it's worth, which is probably not much:

I'm off, reluctantly, to a Romney event, but later: Hillary's many placards, my Edwards exploits, and Chuck Norris. Because we all know no primary season is complete without Chuck Norris.